Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4525 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4525 MDW 05:11 → LGA 08:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1582 MDW 18:59 → LGA 22:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4525 Southwest	MDW 05:11	LGA 08:16	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 802 Southwest	MDW 07:21	LGA 10:26	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3010 Southwest	MDW 10:36	LGA 13:37	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest	MDW 12:28	LGA 15:30	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2751 Southwest	MDW 14:44	LGA 17:51	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4236 Southwest	MDW 17:45	LGA 20:53	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1582 Southwest	MDW 18:59	LGA 22:08	19%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON