Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1862 at 10:13 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1862 MDW 10:13 → MEM 11:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4975 MDW 20:41 → MEM 22:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1862 Southwest	MDW 10:13	MEM 11:53	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4258 Southwest	MDW 10:10	MEM 11:37	10%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4133 Southwest	MDW 20:42	MEM 22:22	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4975 Southwest	MDW 20:41	MEM 22:18	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON