Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2412 Southwest	MDW 09:16	MIA 13:12	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2929 Southwest	MDW 11:36	MIA 15:41	19%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 45m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 18:17 → MIA 21:22DL 2548	7h 00m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	49m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	4h 50m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 17:47 → MIA 19:43DL 1328	6h 02m	98%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON