Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4871 MDW 09:00 → MSP 10:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 574 MDW 20:19 → MSP 21:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4871 Southwest	MDW 09:00	MSP 10:25	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4882 Southwest	MDW 10:46	MSP 12:08	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1456 Southwest	MDW 14:37	MSP 16:00	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3816 Southwest	MDW 17:11	MSP 18:35	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 574 Southwest	MDW 20:19	MSP 21:42	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 5469 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:54	MSP 11:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:49	MSP 15:33	32%	19%	3.6%	68%
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON