Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 561 Southwest	MDW 10:24	MSY 12:33	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3483 Southwest	MDW 20:13	MSY 22:20	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	5h 37m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → MSY 18:27DL 678	7h 22m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → MSY 23:31DL 2224	6h 21m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	5h 31m	89%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON