Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 3738 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day


WN 3738 Southwest	MDW 09:03	ORF 12:10	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1152 Southwest	MDW 18:24	ORF 21:26	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:23 → ORF 14:10DL 2925	7h 10m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → ORF 00:34 +1DL 2338	6h 24m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:53DL 1346	6h 48m	99%	88%
Frontier Details →	MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:43 → ORF 12:32F9 3072	5h 27m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON