Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4940 MDW 08:37 → PHL 11:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3485 MDW 17:58 → PHL 21:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4940 Southwest	MDW 08:37	PHL 11:46	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 5096 Southwest	MDW 09:55	PHL 12:55	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4897 Southwest	MDW 12:04	PHL 15:05	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1377 Southwest	MDW 13:00	PHL 15:58	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1758 Southwest	MDW 15:19	PHL 18:17	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3485 Southwest	MDW 17:58	PHL 21:04	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON