Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 2775 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2775 Southwest	MDW 07:46	PWM 11:02	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 300 Southwest	MDW 19:43	PWM 23:02	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	5h 44m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 00m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON