Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4460 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4460 MDW 07:50 → RSW 11:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2813 MDW 18:10 → RSW 21:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4460 Southwest	MDW 07:50	RSW 11:38	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 4034 Southwest	MDW 10:49	RSW 14:31	22%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 2976 Southwest	MDW 13:15	RSW 17:08	24%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 2813 Southwest	MDW 18:10	RSW 21:50	30%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON