tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4843 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4843 Southwest MDW 11:06 SFO 13:41 10% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 4984 Southwest MDW 19:10 SFO 21:44 22% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 18m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672 9h 52m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:56DL 495 10h 51m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 00:04 +1DL 656 8h 54m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 19:43 → SFO 21:40DL 681 10h 59m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 9h 08m 94% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON