tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4803 Southwest MDW 10:12 SLC 12:36 7% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2833 Southwest MDW 20:44 SLC 23:11 16% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 7h 22m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 50m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 57m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660 9h 56m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453 8h 16m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 1h 56m Detroit DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 7h 08m 89% 80%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607 7h 18m 89% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 21:57 → SLC 23:53DL 9961 5h 47m 63% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON