Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1642 at 13:23, 24%.

Nonstops that day


WN 1642 Southwest	MDW 13:23	SRQ 17:03	24%	4%	2.3%	no record
WN 250 Southwest	MDW 13:58	SRQ 17:32	24%	5%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109	6h 09m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	55m Atlanta	ATL 14:56 → SRQ 16:34DL 3115	4h 29m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON