tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3157 Southwest MEM 08:02 BNA 09:05 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 717 Southwest MEM 14:32 BNA 15:38 8% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 15m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 31m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 3h 49m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:43 → CLT 09:39AA 978 3h 45m Charlotte CLT 13:24 → BNA 14:03AA 2409 7h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 59m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 5h 36m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic 1h 28m New York LGA 11:16 → BNA 12:47AA 4481 · flown by Republic 6h 47m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy 2h 44m Chicago ORD 11:13 → BNA 12:56AA 2362 6h 36m 98% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON