tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5604 at 06:00, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → MEM 06:00 BOS 10:01 12% 4% 0.4% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 30m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 27m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 6h 51m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:49 → ATL 14:18DL 82 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821 8h 11m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic 2h 16m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 6h 16m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 6h 17m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → BOS 23:36DL 300 6h 15m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:29 → CLT 09:19AA 1846 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 12:23 → BOS 15:00AA 3314 7h 31m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 12:05 → CLT 14:54AA 1354 47m Charlotte CLT 15:41 → BOS 18:12AA 1901 5h 07m 53% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON