tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2452 at 16:43, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2452 Southwest MEM 16:43 BWI 19:57 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 46m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MEM 10:25 → ORD 12:17AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 2h 26m Chicago ORD 14:43 → BWI 17:42AA 3762 · flown by Envoy 6h 17m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 5h 26m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy 1h 29m Chicago ORD 09:58 → BWI 13:03AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 5h 43m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 5h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:49 → ATL 14:18DL 82 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 5h 52m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 18:01 → BWI 21:32DL 2918 8h 23m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → BOS 10:01DL 5604 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 53m 91% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON