Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 978 MEM 06:43 → CLT 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1636 MEM 15:06 → CLT 17:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 06:43	CLT 09:39	6%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	MEM 08:05	CLT 10:56	7%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1790 American Flight history →	MEM 12:13	CLT 15:02	9%	3%	0.7%	95%
OH 5398 PSA	MEM 18:08	CLT 21:04	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1636 American	MEM 15:06	CLT 17:56	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON