Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 480 Southwest	MEM 09:56	DAL 11:22	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3014 Southwest	MEM 13:20	DAL 14:53	14%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 36m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:49 → ATL 14:17DL 82	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 05m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 04m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON