Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1940 at 05:42 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1940 MEM 05:42 → DFW 07:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1929 MEM 17:35 → DFW 19:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1940 American Flight history →	MEM 05:42	DFW 07:36	5%	3%	0.7%	89%
MQ 3346 Envoy	MEM 07:04	DFW 08:59	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1825 American Flight history →	MEM 07:13	DFW 09:14	7%	3%	0.7%	85%
MQ 3528 Envoy	MEM 09:23	DFW 10:59	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 14:54	DFW 16:30	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 1086 American Flight history →	MEM 11:43	DFW 13:22	12%	4%	0.7%	71%
AA 1929 American	MEM 17:35	DFW 19:15	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON