Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2370 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:32	DTW 09:27	4%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1627 Delta	MEM 10:32	DTW 13:35	5%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 41m	99%	91%
American Details →	MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DTW 12:09AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	4h 49m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:55 → LGA 10:52DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 03m New York	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	6h 56m	99%	90%
American Details →	MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic	1h 48m New York	LGA 11:36 → DTW 13:29AA 4339 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	5h 50m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:43 → ATL 14:13DL 82	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 30m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	6h 15m	98%	89%
American Details →	MEM 06:43 → CLT 09:39AA 978	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 12:24 → DTW 14:15AA 1683	6h 32m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON