Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2052 MEM 08:59 → IAH 10:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5798 MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2052 United	MEM 08:59	IAH 10:59	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5285 SkyWest	MEM 11:30	IAH 13:40	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5798 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 15:23	IAH 17:25	10%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 4003 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MEM 09:00	IAH 10:54	8%	4%	0.6%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON