Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:57 am at Memphis); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2513 at 10:58, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2513 Southwest	MEM 10:58	LAS 12:27	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → LAS 19:52DL 919	8h 15m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:15 → LAS 23:38DL 834	9h 17m	98%	86%
United Details →	MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Houston	IAH 20:07 → LAS 21:31UA 1360	8h 08m	98%	85%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	2h 04m Newark	EWR 11:47 → LAS 14:10UA 1864	10h 10m	98%	84%
United Details →	MEM 06:48 → IAH 08:55UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	3h 00m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 25m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 18:00 → ATL 20:28DL 1681	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:36 → LAS 23:57DL 825	7h 57m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:11 → MSP 09:27DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:20 → LAS 11:40DL 2238	6h 29m	93%	83%
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 11:14 → LAS 13:21UA 1803	7h 56m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON