tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:36 am at Memphis)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:27, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 50m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:11 → MSP 09:27DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 12m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:42 → IAH 08:38UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 55m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 24m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:53 → SLC 09:10DL 2290 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 34m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:20DL 326 8h 44m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:36DL 996 8h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:03 → ATL 09:31DL 1624 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 09m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:48 → ATL 14:16DL 82 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500 9h 42m 100% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON