Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5607 MEM 06:55 → LGA 10:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest YX 5599 MEM 17:14 → LGA 21:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5607 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:55	LGA 10:52	6%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 07:08	LGA 11:01	6%	2%	0.4%	82%
AA 4564 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	LGA 09:48	7%	2%	0.4%	87%
YX 5602 Republic	MEM 11:18	LGA 15:13	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MEM 11:05	LGA 14:57	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
YX 5605 Republic	MEM 16:53	LGA 20:59	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 14:18	LGA 18:12	13%	4%	0.7%	66%
YX 5599 Republic	MEM 17:14	LGA 21:08	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON