tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 40m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 42m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 40m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 3h 00m Detroit DTW 12:27 → MCO 15:06DL 1123 7h 34m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 30m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 6h 38m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 7h 03m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:43 → CLT 09:39AA 978 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 12:18 → MCO 13:59AA 2117 6h 16m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:51 → MCO 14:22DL 1576 4h 55m 96% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON