Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3020 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3020 MEM 05:10 → MDW 06:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4148 MEM 15:18 → MDW 17:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3020 Southwest	MEM 05:10	MDW 06:54	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2851 Southwest	MEM 05:57	MDW 07:43	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4662 Southwest	MEM 15:13	MDW 16:53	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4148 Southwest	MEM 15:18	MDW 17:03	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON