tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:36 am at Memphis)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1340 at 05:34, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1340 American Flight history → MEM 05:34 MIA 09:03 8% 3% 0.3% 93%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:59 → ATL 08:27DL 1666 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 03m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic 1h 48m Newark EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295 7h 38m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:24 → PHL 09:52AA 5409 · flown by PSA 1h 36m Philadelphia PHL 11:28 → MIA 14:16AA 1989 6h 52m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MEM 18:00 → ATL 20:28DL 1681 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 5h 55m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 27m Chicago ORD 10:57 → MIA 15:19UA 1620 6h 54m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:31 → CLT 09:19AA 1846 1h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 5h 40m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:42 → IAH 08:38UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 22m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 8h 05m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:48 → ORD 08:57AA 3758 · flown by Envoy 1h 05m Chicago ORD 10:02 → MIA 14:11AA 2689 6h 23m 95% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON