Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3758 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3758 MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5336 MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3758 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 06:20	ORD 08:29	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 3959 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 10:25	ORD 12:17	8%	2%	0.7%	98%
UA 247 United Flight history →	MEM 07:25	ORD 09:30	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 5672 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 09:46	ORD 11:57	10%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 4651 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 17:37	ORD 19:34	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 5780 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 14:22	ORD 16:29	19%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 5336 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 18:35	ORD 20:40	21%	9%	0.7%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON