Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5409 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 06:18	PHL 09:48	6%	4%	0.9%	98%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 12:58	PHL 16:34	10%	4%	0.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 42m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 04m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 37m	98%	88%
American Details →	MEM 06:29 → CLT 09:18AA 1846	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	5h 14m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 17:59 → ATL 20:28DL 1681	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 00m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:50 → ATL 14:16DL 82	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	5h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 43m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON