Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 11:43, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3359 Envoy	MEM 07:52	PHX 09:37	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	9h 18m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 46m	98%	90%
American Details →	MEM 06:07 → PHL 09:38AA 5409 · flown by PSA	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 10:58 → PHX 13:03AA 478	8h 56m	100%	89%
American Details →	MEM 06:43 → CLT 09:39AA 978	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	8h 13m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 48m	99%	88%
American Details →	MEM 05:42 → DFW 07:36AA 1940	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → PHX 11:24AA 2905	7h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON