tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:55 am at Memphis); 1 already left
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:48 → ATL 14:16DL 82 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 14m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 7h 42m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660 9h 00m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:53 → SLC 23:52DL 453 8h 31m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Houston IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43UA 2157 8h 20m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MEM 10:24 → ORD 12:16AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 1h 53m Chicago ORD 14:09 → SLC 17:02AA 1873 7h 38m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest 3h 41m Chicago ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710 9h 26m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → MEM 13:04 → PHL 16:40AA 5040 · flown by PSA 2h 59m Philadelphia PHL 19:39 → SLC 22:30AA 2630 10h 26m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON