Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2185 United Flight history →	MFR 05:00	DEN 08:33	8%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 1412 United Flight history →	MFR 13:10	DEN 16:43	11%	5%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 32m	98%	90%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 33m	99%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	46m Phoenix	PHX 08:28 → DEN 11:21AA 1332	5h 06m	70%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON