Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3769 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	SLC 08:08	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
OO 3865 SkyWest	MFR 13:29	SLC 16:26	7%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 18:51 → SLC 22:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	99%	90%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Phoenix	PHX 10:51 → SLC 13:31AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	5h 21m	98%	86%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	3h 07m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 13m	97%	85%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	2h 40m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 46m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 09:26 → SLC 12:21AS 661	5h 23m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON