Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:36 am at Manchester); 3 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5591 PSA	MHT 11:53	CLT 14:26	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5120 PSA	MHT 16:29	CLT 18:51	10%	4%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MHT 17:00 → ORD 18:45AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	6h 59m	99%	75%
American Details →	MHT 11:55 → DCA 13:45AA 5150 · flown by PSA	1h 41m Washington	DCA 15:26 → CLT 17:00AA 2040	5h 05m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON