Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5160 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 5160 MHT 06:00 → DCA 07:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OH 5179 MHT 16:54 → DCA 18:47 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5160 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 06:00	DCA 07:55	9%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 5150 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 12:10	DCA 14:05	19%	6%	0.8%	68%
OH 5179 PSA	MHT 16:54	DCA 18:47	20%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON