Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4150 MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3720 MHT 20:49 → ORD 22:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4150 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 07:14	ORD 09:10	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
YX 4406 Republic	MHT 12:26	ORD 14:10	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MHT 20:49	ORD 22:14	11%	3%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON