Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OH 5392 at 06:04, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5392 MHT 06:04 → PHL 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5392 PSA	MHT 06:04	PHL 07:20	4%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6001 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MHT 07:35	PHL 09:14	14%	10%	1.4%	86%
AA 5976 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MHT 10:32	PHL 12:09	20%	7%	0.0%	80%
AA 5942 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MHT 19:30	PHL 21:10	25%	15%	9.2%	75%
AA 5840 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MHT 14:54	PHL 16:35	26%	16%	4.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON