Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 1249 MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1045 MIA 17:28 → ATL 19:22 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1249 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:00	ATL 08:01	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1211 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:10	ATL 09:10	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1261 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:20	ATL 10:20	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:05	ATL 14:12	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
F9 2483 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 05:28	ATL 07:41	15%	6%	1.0%	82%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:59	ATL 14:57	15%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	MIA 09:27	ATL 11:26	18%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:09	ATL 16:13	19%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 980 Delta	MIA 22:47	ATL 00:42	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:46	ATL 18:47	24%	6%	0.8%	59%
AA 1400 American	MIA 22:09	ATL 00:16	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:14	26%	8%	0.8%	59%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 14:47	ATL 16:42	28%	12%	0.7%	63%
F9 2271 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:42	ATL 23:51	31%	13%	1.2%	79%worse than usual
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 17:28	ATL 19:22	37%	13%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON