Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4177 at 11:16 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4177 MIA 11:16 → AUS 13:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2344 MIA 19:05 → AUS 21:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4177 Envoy	MIA 11:16	AUS 13:25	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 613 American	MIA 13:57	AUS 15:58	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1653 Southwest	MIA 14:37	AUS 16:31	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:40	25%	9%	1.0%	73%
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	26%	9%	1.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON