Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 3351 at 21:34, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3351 Envoy	MIA 21:34	AVL 23:33	22%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 02m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → AVL 14:51DL 3099	6h 31m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → AVL 11:10DL 3059	5h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:09 → AVL 17:17DL 3101	6h 37m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 11:27 → LGA 14:16DL 2347	2h 13m New York	LGA 16:29 → AVL 18:20DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	6h 53m	99%	82%
American Details →	MIA 07:50 → CLT 09:57AA 361	3h 45m Charlotte	CLT 13:42 → AVL 14:36AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 46m	98%	79%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:35AA 3004	3h 45m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → AVL 13:01AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	6h 37m	99%	78%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	1h 04m Washington	DCA 10:04 → AVL 11:48AA 5213 · flown by PSA	5h 29m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON