tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:51 am at Miami)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1272 at 20:44, 41%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1272 American Flight history → MIA 20:44 BDL 23:55 41% 12% 0.9% 71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 56m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 45m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 19m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:26 → CLT 08:36AA 3004 3h 54m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → BDL 14:30AA 2751 8h 04m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:40 → ATL 18:40DL 1323 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 7h 14m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491 3h 59m Washington DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA 8h 08m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504 7h 10m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → BDL 13:59AA 1083 8h 34m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON