Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3427 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 22:56	BHM 23:59	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:44	BHM 14:54	13%	3%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 04m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 17m	98%	89%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:04 → BHM 14:56AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	6h 02m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:18 → BHM 21:21DL 2257	5h 35m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	6h 49m	98%	88%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:51 → BHM 11:53AA 5530 · flown by PSA	7h 28m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON