Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2247 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2247 MIA 08:33 → BOS 12:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1074 MIA 18:20 → BOS 21:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2247 American Flight history →	MIA 08:33	BOS 12:04	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:30	BOS 14:59	16%	5%	0.7%	74%
AA 2143 American	MIA 14:47	BOS 17:58	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1054 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	BOS 00:59	23%	9%	0.8%	60%
DL 1784 Delta	MIA 20:07	BOS 23:22	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1074 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	BOS 21:45	28%	10%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON