tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 8h 11m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 17m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → BUR 11:58AA 1208 7h 58m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:39AA 1824 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 9h 28m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411 8h 14m 85% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:41 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 17m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON