Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3881 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3881 MIA 07:36 → BWI 10:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3216 MIA 18:42 → BWI 21:16 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3881 Southwest	MIA 07:36	BWI 10:08	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1010 American	MIA 10:27	BWI 13:17	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4219 Envoy	MIA 14:19	BWI 17:01	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2859 Southwest	MIA 14:34	BWI 16:59	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3885 Southwest	MIA 16:06	BWI 18:41	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 18:42	BWI 21:16	33%	10%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON