Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 361 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 361 MIA 08:19 → CLT 10:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3194 MIA 17:18 → CLT 19:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 361 American Flight history →	MIA 08:19	CLT 10:20	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 1965 American	MIA 08:53	CLT 11:01	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1398 American	MIA 09:55	CLT 11:50	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2231 American	MIA 21:44	CLT 23:43	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	20%	9%	0.7%	66%
F9 3700 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 18:49	CLT 21:05	22%	10%	1.2%	92%worse than usual
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	CLT 18:40	23%	9%	0.7%	78%
AA 1577 American Flight history →	MIA 18:51	CLT 20:51	27%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 3194 American	MIA 17:18	CLT 19:21	28%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON