Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 3616 at 19:52, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3616 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:52	CMH 22:44	15%	5%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 08:37 → JFK 11:37AA 2341	3h 07m New York	JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45AA 4767 · flown by Republic	8h 08m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	99%	93%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → LGA 11:52AA 605	3h 40m New York	LGA 15:32 → CMH 17:29AA 4462 · flown by Republic	8h 29m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339	3h 09m New York	LGA 14:25 → CMH 16:22DL 5675 · flown by Republic	8h 07m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	5h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 28m	99%	92%
American Details →	MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205	3h 09m New York	LGA 13:08 → CMH 15:04AA 4684 · flown by Republic	8h 08m	99%	91%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	1h 23m Washington	DCA 10:23 → CMH 11:55AA 4700 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	96%	90%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33DL 1545	4h 47m	75%	66%
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	52m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	68%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON