Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Hebron on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	18%	6%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 06:37 → JFK 09:32AA 525	1h 38m New York	JFK 11:10 → CVG 13:21AA 4609 · flown by Republic	6h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 25m	98%	91%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408	2h 05m Newark	EWR 13:59 → CVG 16:12UA 3455 · flown by Republic	7h 24m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 51m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	5h 18m	98%	90%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → CVG 14:03AA 3950 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	7h 20m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 39m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON