Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1272 at 14:12, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1272 Southwest	MIA 14:12	DAL 16:11	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 43m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 49m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1323	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 39m	95%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 25m	73%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON