Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 491 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:18 → DCA 20:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:19	DCA 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:49	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 10:34	DCA 13:13	14%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	15%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 1595 American	MIA 11:50	DCA 14:27	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 861 American	MIA 13:51	DCA 16:21	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	22%	7%	1.2%	76%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	24%	9%	1.2%	74%
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:27	DCA 18:01	24%	9%	0.9%	58%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	25%	11%	1.3%	63%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:18	DCA 20:59	30%	10%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON