Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2575 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2575 MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2828 MIA 17:41 → DFW 19:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	8%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 893 American	MIA 10:23	DFW 12:35	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	16%	7%	0.8%	74%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:32	DFW 16:46	18%	9%	1.2%	77%
AA 1287 American Flight history →	MIA 12:39	DFW 14:51	19%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 2183 American	MIA 14:06	DFW 16:08	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1679 American Flight history →	MIA 21:47	DFW 23:42	23%	9%	1.2%	74%
AA 1824 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DFW 17:39	24%	10%	0.9%	63%
AA 2289 American	MIA 19:51	DFW 21:55	24%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 3259 American Flight history →	MIA 16:45	DFW 18:56	30%	10%	1.2%	73%
AA 2828 American Flight history →	MIA 17:41	DFW 19:42	33%	11%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON